A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
